What's At Stake In The The New Chinese-Georgian Partnership?

Hard-won freedom is on the chopping block

In the last week of July 2023, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili and his entourage visited Beijing–turning a new page in the book of Chinese-Georgian relations. While there, they were actively swayed by C.C.P. flattery and persuaded to unveil for the first time a previously unknown Georgian-Chinese strategic partnership.

But Georgia already signed a strategic partnership with the United States in January 2009. Many countries have simultaneous agreements with rival nations, but in this case a partnership with China will jeopardize the integration of Georgia’s institutions into the West. Experts have recently used Italy, the U.K., Germany, and Turkey’s strategic partnerships with China as examples proving that such agreements are safe, but Georgia’s minuscule population and low G.D.P. world ranking ill-equip it to handle China’s aggressive expansion.

Tbilisi, Georgia, in August 2021. Boris Kuznetsov/Flickr.

But it’s more concerning that the West underestimates the threat China poses to Georgia. Georgia’s vulnerability to China’s economic influence, including its large infrastructure investments, only serves Chinese strategic interests. The strategic agreement will allow China to transport goods through the “Middle Corridor” to the E.U.’s borders. The Middle Corridor’s most important leg might be the Anaklia Sea Port, which the Chinese government wants their controlled companies and investors to build, instead of the American and Dutch companies already contracted.

So let’s clarify where Georgian-Chinese relations are currently heading and the most concerning facts and figures. 

Two years ago, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace released a report on China’s Influence in Southeastern, Central, and Eastern Europe stating that:

even modest Chinese investment can make a significant difference in a small economy like Georgia. Compared to Georgia’s affinity for the West, however, the China-Georgia relationship remains dominated by elites, with little resonance in wider society. 

The Georgian public already shows great concern about their country’s vulnerability to Chinese economic domination. Over the last five years, China has been one of Georgia’s largest export partners. And since late July, Chinese citizens are able to travel in Georgia visa-free.

Georgia’s Top three export partners in 2022, where China takes first position, and is followed by Azerbaijan and Russia

But Chinese expansion in Georgia is most visible when looking at infrastructure projects, including road and sea port construction. Chinese companies have contracted or completed significant numbers of road development projects in Georgia relative to the country’s size. Chinese companies are currently contracted to build the central, E-60 highway, terminating in the E.U. via Turkey. Much of this highway’s funding, which will go directly to the Chinese government, is on loan from the World Bank and European Bank of Reconstruction and Development.

Moreover, the Georgian government is offering low payment on many of its infrastructure projects, disincentivizing Western construction companies. For many road projects, for example, Chinese companies make up the only bidders–coming in with suspiciously low bids.

Five Chinese firms, for example, and no Western firms are competing on construction projects for the Stepantsminda-Gveleti Road Section of Mtskheta-Stepantsminda-Larsi International Road.

Contenders for Tender N DEP230000026 on the website of State Procurement Agency of Georgia.

Carnegie’s report also underlined the elite domination of China-Georgia relations and named key players in the development and maintenance of these relationships. These elites and their decision making criteria are inaccessible to ordinary Georgians, and it is unlikely that the benefits Georgia’s close economic ties with China will accrue will be felt by ordinary citizens. On the contrary, it is far more likely that the elite economic and political classes will use these relationships to consolidate social advantage and political power. 

In February 2020, The Heritage Foundation released a special report outlining characteristics of Chinese political behavior:

The political personality of Chinese power today is the product of history, ideology, and the institutions that have governed the country over the course of five millennia, and the ideology and legacy inherited by the present Chinese leaders from the preceding generations of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders. … A central characteristic of this culture is the lack of “rule of law.” There is no evidence of a strong, independent judiciary in Chinese history. This is rooted in various factors that differentiate Chinese history and culture from its Western counterparts.

In other words, China’s government will disregard democratic processes, the need for an independent judiciary and peaceful transitions of power, checks and balances in institutions, and other important elements of liberal governments in Georgia. Heritage goes on to say: 

The instrumental understanding of the law is not only reflected in domestic governance. In international relations, it has meant that the Chinese government typically employs laws, treaties, and other legal instruments to achieve previously formulated ends, even when they fly in the face of traditional legal interpretations. 

China won’t demand (or even tolerate) higher democratic standards in Georgia, and will gladly work with elites who care neither for the people’s nor the state’s long term interests. The cooperation between Georgian elites and the well-known CEFC China Energy illustrates this perfectly: elites had no qualms doing business with a controversial firm whose global track record was one of well-documented corruption scandals.

Georgia’s new partnership with China does not carry equal benefits for both parties, but instead will lead to domination by a global superpower over a tiny country in Eurasia’s heartland. Anaklia Sea Port is the lynchpin of this deal.

Miro Popkhadze, a fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute told Voice of America: 

Georgia's stance appears conflicting: Georgia aims to be part of NATO and the European Union, yet the country's government also is supporting an initiative that might be harmful to Georgia's interests. 

Another senior E.U. diplomat told Radio Free Europe: 

[the strategic partnership] is disappointing and confirms the negative tendency the Georgian government has taken. It will definitely not improve their standing during [recent E.U.] enlargement talks. 

Georgia’s clear democratic backsliding has strained its ties with Brussels. Georgia’s ruling elite isn’t going to resettle or renegotiate their European aspirations, but instead will find other “reliable” partners that will support their ongoing struggle to maintain power.

Ankalia, Georgia in 2012. Lodia/Flickr.

What Should the West Do?

History has shown that the Georgian people are devoted to liberalism. It would be a mistake to abandon them to corrupt elites on the one hand and China on the other. The West should express and demonstrate its interest in Georgia’s strategic value. Mike Pompeo, in 2019, argued that if Western companies constructed the Anaklia Sea Port it would “strengthen Georgia’s ties with free economies and will not allow Georgia to be under the economic influence of Russia or China.” The U.S. should not abandon Western oversight of the Anaklia Sea Port project because as soon as Washington relaxes, Beijing will immediately tighten its grip. Now is a decisive moment. 

And the E.U. must hear the voice of ordinary Georgians and grant them candidacy status. Such a move will send a decisive message to Beijing that the West won’t abandon Georgia to anti-Western powers. Overpowering Chinese economic influence in Georgia would spell disaster not only for a significant majority of ordinary citizens, but also for Western strategic interests. Giving up a freedom-loving and overwhelmingly pro-European people sets a risky precedent.